Saturday, 16 May 2026

Sergiy Kivalov*

The “Sea Factor” in Regional Cooperation: The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War

Full text PDF [EN]

Suggested citation:

Kivalov, S. (2023). The “Sea Factor” in Regional Cooperation: The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War. Lex Portus, 9(2), 19–27. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.9.2.2023.2

Published online: 01.06.2023

*Doctor of Law, Professor, President of National University Odessa Law Academy (23, Fontanska Doroga, Odessa, Ukraine)

 

ABSTRACT

The “sea factor” has a crucial influence on coastal states’ domestic and foreign policies, and may create additional incentives for regional cooperation and integration. The Russo-Ukrainian War, the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, has become a stress test for many regional transport and infrastructure projects. Moreover, this armed conflict has had different effects in different cases. For the Three Seas Initiative, the Russo-Ukrainian war became an additional incentive to strengthen cooperation. It gave the initiative new meaning and even stimulated its expansion through the decision to grant partner status to Ukraine. At the same time, this conflict had negative consequences for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The war also led to the emergence of another area of cooperation between Ukraine and Turkey in the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Keywords: Three Seas Initiative, BRI, Black Sea Grain Initiative, Ukraine, Russia, war, armed conflict.

 

REFERENCES

Alliance Logistics. (n.d.). “Viking Train” Project. https://alliance.net/viking-train-project/

Bach, H., & Hansen, T. (2023). Flickering guiding light from the International Maritime Organisation’s policy mix. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 47, 100720. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2023.100720

Baird, A. J. (2005) Maritime policy in Scotland. Maritime Policy & Management, 32(4), 383–401. https://doi.org/10.1080/03088830500300404

Bartoszewicz, M. G. (2023). Intermarium: A Bid for Polycentric Europe. Geopolitics, 28(2), 795–819. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2021.1973439

Bassarova, O. (2023, April 25). In Russia announced the threat of failure of the grain deal with Ukraine. Kursiv. https://kz.kursiv.media/2023-04-25/lsbs-atakazernosdelka/ [in Russian].

Bilenets, D., Ulianova, H., & Vozniakovska, K. (2022). Three Seas Initiative and Ukrainian Seaports’ Prospects amid Russian Aggression. Lex Portus, 8(5), 48–70. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.8.5.2022.2

Bo, H. (2023). Implications of the Ukraine war for China: can China survive secondary sanctions? Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 21(2), 311–322. https://doi.org/10.1080/14765284.2022.2136933

Brodny, J., & Tutak, M. (2023). Assessing the level of digital maturity in the Three Seas Initiative countries. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 190, 122462. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122462

Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. (2018, December 18). Resolution on Amendments to the Maritime Doctrine of Ukraine for the Period until 2035. (No. 1108). Official Bulletin of Ukraine, 2019, 2, 85, 53. [in Ukrainian].

Chambers, S. (2021, August 16). How the Taliban takeover in landlocked Afghanistan will change shipping patterns. Splash247. https://splash247.com/how-the-taliban-takeover-in-landlocked-afghanistan-will-change-shipping-patterns/?fbclid=IwAR1l_PG8vahX-sOqaY3CgWXjDxcWufdv2jV5pXz877oPI36s6c45GbKqlSI

European Commission. Directorate-General for Mobility and Transport. (2022, October 21). Rail: Commission initiates feasibility study to better connect Ukrainian and Moldovan railway networks with EU. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/news-events/news/commission-initiates-feasibility-study-better-connect-ukrainian-and-moldovan-railway-networks-eu-2022-10-21_en

European Pravda. (2023, February 28). Ukrainian business asks the UN and Turkey to facilitate the work of the “grain agreement”. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2023/02/28/7157105/ [in Ukrainian].

Fernandes, G., Teixeira, P., & Santos, T. A. (2023). The impact of the Ukraine conflict in internal and external grain transport costs. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 19, 100803. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100803

Fife, R. E. (2023). Contributions of LOSC Jurisprudence to Reaching and Justifying a Negotiated Outcome – and Contributions of Negotiated Settlements to the Law of the Sea. The International Journal of Marine and Coastal Law, 38(2), 363–377. https://doi.org/10.1163/15718085-bja10130

Görömbölyi, D. (2022). China, Its Belt and Road Initiative, and Its Uniquely Matching Latin American Host Environment. Lex Portus, 8(5), 71–94. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.8.5.2022.3

Grgić, G. (2023). The Changing Dynamics of Regionalism in Central and Eastern Europe: The Case of the Three Seas Initiative. Geopolitics, 28(1), 216–238. https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2021.1881489

Hatson, N. (2021, May 17). Central Asia Faces Obstacles on its Way to the Sea. Eurasianet. https://russian.eurasianet.org/центральная-азия-встречает-препятствия-на-пути-к-морю [in Russian].

Hellenic Shipping News. (2023, January 16). As BRI enters 10th year of development, China-Europe freight train set to see ‘explosive growth’ in 2023. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/as-bri-enters-10th-year-of-development-china-europe-freight-train-set-to-see-explosive-growth-in-2023/

Hordiichuk, D. (2023, February 16). Shortened working day and continuous “tea parties”. How Russia is trying to derail the grain agreement. Economic Pravda. https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2023/02/16/697096/ [in Ukrainian].

Humpert, M. (2023, January 18). Russia’s Northern Sea Route Sees More Traffic Despite War and Sanctions. High North News. https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russias-northern-sea-route-sees-more-traffic-despite-war-and-sanctions

Kolisnichenko, V. (2022, August 5). The Ministry of Economy calls to extend the grain agreement to the export of iron ore. Gmk.center. https://gmk.center/en/news/the-ministry-of-economy-calls-to-extend-the-grain-agreement-to-the-export-of-iron-ore/

Kormych, B., & Malyarenko, T. (2022). From gray zone to conventional warfare: the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the Black Sea. Small Wars & Insurgencies. https://doi.org/10.1080/09592318.2022.2122278

Korsunskyi, S. (2019, September 3). About Polish Gas, Energy Security and Gazprom’s Signal. Hromadske. http://surl.li/gzowo [in Ukrainian].

Kurnosov, A. (2022, September 27). The End of Russia’s Gas Dictate: What the Opening of the Baltic Pipe Gas Pipeline will do for the EU and Ukraine? Radio Svoboda. https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/baltic-pipe-novyy-hazoprovid-bez-rosiyi/32054601.html [in Ukrainian].

Lee, P. T.-W., & Song, Z. (2023). Exploring a new development direction of the Belt and Road Initiative in the transitional period towards the post-COVID-19 era. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 172, 103082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2023.103082

Li, M. (2022, October 27). Cosco stake in Hamburg’s CTT stirs unease over Chinese influence in ports. The Loadstar. https://theloadstar.com/cosco-stake-in-hamburgs-ctt-stirs-unease-over-chinese-influence-in-ports/

Lukeš, F. (2023, April 24). China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Transforming the Middle East at a Cost to the U.S. CBAP. https://cbap.cz/archiv/5295

Macro-Regional Strategies. (n.d.). https://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/policy/cooperation/macro-regional-strategies/danube_en

Maritime Gateway. (2022, December 6). COSCO’s Rising European Footprint. https://www.maritimegateway.com/coscos-rising-european-footprint/

Marketscreener. (2023, May 10). Cosco allowed to take a stake in Hamburg’s HHLA terminal. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HAMBURGER-HAFEN-UND-LOGIS-698551/news/Cosco-allowed-to-take-a-stake-in-Hamburg-s-HHLA-terminal-43806985/

Melnyk, S. (2023, April 20). Minister: Romania will not close the transit of Ukrainian grain. 80% of overland exports take this route. Ekonomic Pravda. https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2023/04/20/699292/

Mendez, A., Forcadell, F. J., & Horiachko, K. (2022). Russia–Ukraine crisis: China’s Belt Road Initiative at the crossroads. Asian Business and Management, 21, 488–496. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41291-022-00195-1

Moe, A., & Stokke, O. S. (2019). Asian Countries and Arctic Shipping: Policies, Interests and Footprints on Governance. Arctic Review on Law and Politics, 10, 24–52. https://doi.org/10.23865/arctic.v10.1374

Oilgas. (2021, September 4). Afghanistan supports China’s Belt and Road program, which contributes to the development of the region, – Taliban spokesman. https://oilgas.gov.tm/en/posts/news/2844/afganistan-podderzhivaet-kitayskuyu-programmu-odin-poyas-odin-put-kotoraya-sposobstvuet-razvitiyu-regiona-predstavitel-taliban

Onze. (n.d.). Container Train Viking. https://www.onze.lt/en/container-train-viking/

Parliament of Russian Federation. (2022, December 5). Federal Law on Amendments to the Federal Law on Inland Sea Waters, the Territorial Sea and the Contiguous Zone of the Russian Federation. (No. 510-FZ). Electronic fund of legal and regulatory technical documents. https://docs.cntd.ru/document/1300131671 [in Russian].

Pimenova, A. (2020). “One Belt – One Road” as China’s global economic project. Koncept, 5. https://doi.org/10.24411/2304-120X-2020-13011 [in Russian].

Schälter, V. (2022, Oktober 25). Cosco in Piräus – eine Erfolgsgeschichte? Tagesschau. https://www.tagesschau.de/wirtschaft/weltwirtschaft/piraeus-cosco-hafen-101.html [in Deutsch].

Sen, T. (2023). Inventing the ‘Maritime Silk Road’. Modern Asian Studies, 1–46. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0026749X22000348

Serafimov, V., Stets, O., & Shkolyk, A. (2021). Seaports in the BRI: Challenges, Solutions and Emerging Regulations. Lex Portus, 7(5), 14–41. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.7.5.2021.2

SOLAS. Consolidated Edition, 2014. http://wrleading.com/english/data/upload/file/201608/7cb21026e7c7ca707e848808fb27f30c.pdf

Soldatenko, M. (2023, April 21). The Black Sea Grain Deal: Fragile Cooperation Between Ukraine and Russia. Lawfare. https://www.lawfareblog.com/black-sea-grain-deal-fragile-cooperation-between-ukraine-and-russia

Song, R., Wu, L., Geraci, M., & Zhong, H. (2022). Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance 2021: Symposium Report. Marine Policy, 146, 105302. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2022.105302

Status Report of 2022. https://projects.3seas.eu/report

Stur, B. (2017, October 24). Poland, Ukraine to build Via Carpathia. Neweurope. https://www.neweurope.eu/article/poland-ukraine-build-via-carpathia/

The Economist. (2023, January 19). The Ukraine war is forcing eastern Europe to build more links. https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/01/19/the-ukraine-war-is-forcing-eastern-europe-to-build-more-links

TheFirstNews. (2023, May 17). Three Seas project necessary owing to Russia-Ukraine war says PM. https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/three-seas-project-necessary-owing-to-russia-ukraine-war-says-pm-38501

The Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports, 2022. https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/black_sea_grain_initiative_full_text.pdf

Troickaja, Ju. (2021, September 3). “Belt and Road”: Taliban hope to continue cooperation with China. Sputniknews. https://uz.sputniknews.ru/20210903/odin-poyas-i-odin-put-taliby-nadeyutsya-na-prodoljenie-sotrudnichestva-s-kitaem-20351585.html [in Russian].

Tsonev, B. (2022, October 30). The Three Seas Initiative aims to expand with Ukraine. London Politica. https://londonpolitica.com/ukraine-watch-blog-list/the-three-seas-initiative-aims-to-expand-with-ukraine

Ukrinform. (2023, April 21). The ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey said what depends on the expansion of the “grain agreement” to the ports of Mykolaiv. https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-economy/3698923-posol-ukraini-u-tureccini-skazav-vid-cogo-zalezit-rozsirenna-zernovoi-ugodi-na-porti-mikolaeva.html [in Ukrainian].

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

Wirth, C. (2023). Solidifying sovereign power in liquid space: The making and breaking of ‘island chains’ and ‘walls’ at sea. Political Geography, 103, 102889. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2023.102889

Wu, C. C.-H. (2023). The Maritime Silk Road Initiative and Its Implications for China’s Regional Policy. Chinese Political Science Review, 8, 63–83. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41111-022-00209-5

Yakymiuk, I. (2023, May 12). Due to the slowdown in the “grain corridor” in Ukraine, factories may stop – the expert. Suspilne Novyny. https://suspilne.media/473968-cerez-galmuvanna-roboti-zernovogo-koridoru-v-ukraini-mozut-zupinatisa-zavodi-ekspert-pro-zernovu-iniciativu/ [in Ukrainian].

Zięba, R. (2023). Three Seas Initiative. In R. Zięba (Ed.). Politics and Security of Central and Eastern Europe: Contemporary Challenges (pp. 261–275). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-16419-4_13

.

Editorial Board Address

Ukraine, Odesa, Fontanska Doroga, 23
Lex Portus Editorial Board

fb

info@lexportus.net.ua