Saturday, 16 May 2026

Sergiy Kivalov*

Current Threats to Sustainable Shipping – from War Risks to Climate Changes

Full text PDF [EN]

Suggested citation:

Kivalov, S. (2024). Current Threats to Sustainable Shipping – from War Risks to Climate Changes. Lex Portus, 10(2), 15–24. https://doi.org/10.62821/lp10202

Published online: 21.05.2024

*Doctor of Law, Professor, President of National University Odessa Law Academy (23, Fontanska Doroga, Odessa, Ukraine)

 

ABSTRACT

The article analyzes the current global risks faced by the maritime industry and explores potential solutions to minimize their negative impact on supply chains. It highlights the damaging effects of regional armed conflicts and the challenges associated with different stakeholders working together to ensure connectivity in combat zones at sea. The article also examines the impact of climate change on maritime transport, using the Suez and Panama Canals as examples. In both instances, the instability factors cause significant changes to shipping routes, volumes, and types of cargo transported by sea. These effects can also be observed beyond the region affected by the destabilizing factors or the corresponding types of cargo.

Keywords: navigation, maritime industry, war risks, climate change, Red Sea, Black Sea, security.

 

REFERENCES

Agropolit. (2024, March 25). The sea corridor provided 75% of Ukraine’s pre-war trade. https://agropolit.com/news/27916-morskiy-koridor-zabezpechiv-75-dovoyennogo-tovaroobigu-ukrayini

Batavier, G. (2024, January 9). The Red Sea crisis: tracking the volatile security situation. Spire. https://spire.com/blog/maritime/the-red-sea-crisis-tracking-the-volatile-security-situation/

Berest, M. (2024, February 6). Ukraine reached pre-war volumes of exports by sea: Shmyhal reported on the increase in exports. Meta.ua. https://meta.ua/uk/news/politics/124083-ukrayina-viishla-na-dovoenni-obsyagi-eksportu-morem-shmigal-dopoviv-pro-zbilshennya-eksportu/

Boiko, K. (2024, February 11). Freight rates in the Danube and Great Odesa ports have stabilized. Intent. https://intent.press/news/economy/2024/stavki-frahtu-v-portah-dunayu-ta-velikoyi-odesi-stabilizuvalisya/

Bureau of Transportation Statistics. (2024, February 14). U.S. Trade and the Impact of Low Water Levels in Gatun Lake and the Panama Canal. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. https://www.bts.gov/data-spotlight/us-trade-and-impact-low-water-levels-gatun-lake-and-panama-canal

Casaca, A. C. P., & Loja, M. A. R. (2023). World of shipping Portugal: an international research conference on maritime affairs. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 8, 13. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-023-00143-y

Chen, Q., Pang, A., & Pang, D. (2021). Fast Recovery or Stagnation? The Maritime Industry post COVID-19. In 21st Annual General Assembly – Proceedings of the International Association of Maritime Universities Conference (pp. 23–32). IAMU AGA. https://aga21.aast.edu/templates/frontend/aga21/ltr/templates/AGA21-Conference-Proceedings.pdf

Childs, N. (2023). The Black Sea in the Shadow of War. Survival, 65(3), 25–36. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2023.2218694

C.H. Robinson. (2024, January 18). Global Market Overview. https://www.chrobinson.com/en-us/resources/insights-and-advisories/global-forwarding-insights/

Combined Maritime Forces. (n.d.). About CMF. https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/about/

Combined Maritime Forces. (2017, September 6). Guidance on Maritime Security Transit Corridor. https://combinedmaritimeforces.com/2017/09/06/guidance-on-maritime-security-transit-corridor/

Dagher, S., & Hatem, M. (2024, March 21). Yemen’s Houthis Tell China, Russia Their Ships Won’t Be Targeted. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/china-russia-reach-agreement-with-yemen-s-houthis-on-red-sea-ships?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic

Dumskaya. (2024, March 10). More than a thousand ships passed through the grain corridor from the ports of Great Odesa. https://dumskaya.net/news/zernovim-koridorom-v-portiv-velikoji-odesi-proys-182772/ua/

Economist. (2024, February 1). Is China a winner from the Red Sea attacks? https://www.economist.com/china/2024/02/01/is-china-a-winner-from-the-red-sea-attacks

European External Action Service. (2024, February 19). EUNAVFOR Operation ASPIDES. https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eunavfor-operation-aspides_en?s=410381

European Pravda. (2024a, January 10). The US and British navies repelled the most massive Houthi attack in the Red Sea. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2024/01/10/7177113/

European Pravda. (2024b, January 11). Demining Black Sea: Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania Sign Agreement. https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/11/7177211/

Fan, S., Yang, Z., Wang, J., & Marsland, J. (2022). Shipping accident analysis in restricted waters: Lesson from the Suez Canal blockage in 2021. Ocean Engineering, 266(5), 113119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2022.113119

Farrer, M. (2022, September 1). Suez Canal briefly blocked again after another ship, Affinity V, becomes stuck. Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/01/suez-canal-ship-stuck-blocked-again-affinity-v

Fasii, B. (2023). War Risks in Shipping Contracts: The Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian Armed Conflict. Lex Portus, 9(3), 23–35. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.9.3.2023.2

Georgoulas, D., Tsioumas, V., Stavroulakis, P. J., & Papadimitriou, S. (2024). Geopolitical risk and sustainable shipping: a quantitative approach. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1080/18366503.2024.2325270

Hellenic shipping news. (2024a, January 8). Shipping volume in Suez Canal drops 28% after disruptions. https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipping-volume-in-suez-canal-drops-28-after-disruptions/

Hellenic shipping news. (2024b, February 8). Conflict in the Middle East is affecting a key energy lifeline for Europe. How big is the risk? https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/conflict-in-the-middle-east-is-affecting-a-key-energy-lifeline-for-europe-how-big-is-the-risk/

Hordiichuk, D. (2023, October 3). Kubrakov told how Ukraine managed to restore navigation in the Black Sea. Economic truth. https://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2023/10/3/705052/

Ibrahim, O., El-Geziry, T. M., Khedr, A., & Alam El-Din, K. (2023). Impacts of recent development processes on the temporal and spatial sea-level variations along the Suez Canal. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 66, 103120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsma.2023.103120

International Bargaining Forum. (2024, February 16). List of designated risk areas, with applicable benefits. Marine Transport Workers’ Trade Union of Ukraine. https://storage.mtwtu.org.ua/source/1/9VmdGVFdbRFCgWGyGUwZafzBK7-IH4z9.pdf

Karakas, S., Kirmizi, M., Gencer, H., & Cullinane, K. (2023). A resilience assessment model for dry bulk shipping supply chains: the case of the Ukraine grain corridor. Maritime Economics & Logistics. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-023-00277-7

Khan, K., Su, C.-W., Tao, R., & Umar, M. (2021). How do geopolitical risks affect oil prices and freight rates? Ocean & Coastal Management, 215, 105955. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105955

Klymenko, A. (2024, March 5). The division of ship owners outside the regions of registration. Facebook. https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=6940747316054422&id=100003576664760

Koilo, V. (2024). Unlocking the sustainable value with digitalization: Views of maritime stakeholders on business opportunities. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 22(1), 401–417. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.22(1).2024.33

Kormych, B., Averochkina, T., & Kormych, L. (2024). Black Sea Grain initiative: bringing lawfare to conventional armed conflict. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/18366503.2024.2316455

Kumar, B. R. (2022). Case 15: Panama Canal Expansion. In Project Finance. Management for Professionals. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96725-3_19

Kushh, A. (2024, March 20). Russia cancels the Suez Canal. What threats does the transport route through Iran pose to the West and Ukraine? Focus. https://focus.ua/amp/opinions/634307-rossiya-otmenyaet-sueckiy-kanal-chem-grozit-zapadu-i-ukraine-transportnyy-put-cherez-iran

Kuzmenko, Yu. (2023, November 15). Ukraine has agreed with global insurers on the transportation of grain – FT. Suspilne Novyny. https://suspilne.media/617855-ukraina-domovilasa-zi-svitovimi-strahovikami-pro-transportuvanna-zerna-ft/

Kuznietsov, S., Vladyshevska V., & Kuznetsov, S. (2023). Coastal Regions of Ukraine: Governance Transformation amid the Russian Invasion. Lex Portus, 9(1), 37–49. https://doi.org/10.26886/2524-101X.9.1.2023.3

Lane, T. (2024, January 29). How Is This Suez Canal Slowdown Different From The Last? Businesses Are Better Prepared. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/how-is-this-suez-canal-slowdown-different-from-the-last-businesses-are-better-prepared-8551551

LaRocco, L. A. (2021). Suez Canal blockage is delaying an estimated $400 million an hour in goods. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/25/suez-canal-blockage-is-delaying-an-estimated-400-million-an-hour-in-goods.html

Magdy, S. (2023, January 9). Cargo ship goes aground, is refloated in Egypt’s Suez Canal. Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/suez-canal-business-fc27fee20b14d4017cfdc1bd7b2ffbc9

Maritime Logistics. (2023, June 7). Freight rates in the Black Sea region and current export trends. https://maritime-logistics.com.ua/stavki-frakhtu-v-regioni-chornogo-morya-t/

Martins, T. T. (2023, November 24). Arctic Ambitions: China’s Engagement With the Northern Sea Route. Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2023/11/arctic-ambitions-chinas-engagement-with-the-northern-sea-route/#:~:text=China%27s%20interest%20is%20branded%20as,connectivity%20and%20promoting%20Arctic%20exploration

Millard, P., & McDonald, M. D. (2024, January 3). Saving the Panama Canal Will Take Years and Cost Billions, If It’s Even Possible. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-03/-270-billion-in-trade-rests-on-finding-a-fix-to-the-panama-canal?srnd=premium-europe&fbclid=IwAR32ucy-yKfwq-Ki21rQm0_uN50BUdVZBBEL7y_gdAWFnbDzG7jkfH4gTjw

Ormevik, A. B., Fagerholt, K., Meisel, F., & Sandvik, E. (2023). A high-fidelity approach to modeling weather-dependent fuel consumption on ship routes with speed optimization. Maritime Transport Research, 5, 100096. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.martra.2023.100096

Panama Canal Authority. (2023, October 30). Advisory to Shipping (No. A-48-2023). https://pancanal.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/ADV48-2023-Reduction-in-Transits-Due-to-the-Ongoing-Deficit-in-Precipitation-in-the-Canal-Watershed.pdf

Panasenko, O. (2024, February 6). Get a foothold on the “big water”. How the Ukrainian port industry worked last year and what to expect this year? Mind. https://mind.ua/publications/20269132-zakripitisya-na-velikij-vodi-yak-pracyuvala-ukrayinska-portova-galuz-torik-i-chogo-ochikuvati-cogori

Perera, L. P., & Soares, C. G. (2017). Weather routing and safe ship handling in the future of shipping. Ocean Engineering, 130, 684–695. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2016.09.007

Reuters. (2023, November 9). Ukraine: Alternative Black Sea export corridor is working despite attack. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-alternative-black-sea-export-corridor-is-working-despite-attack-2023-11-09/

Rieznyk, O., Treus, A., & Kozmenko, S. (2023). Priorities of impact investing in environmental protection projects: the case of the future post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Business: Theory and Practice, 24(2), 459–472. https://doi.org/10.3846/btp.2023.18020

Ripper, F. (2023, August 26). Why is the Panama Canal drying up and what does it mean for global shipping? ABC News. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-26/why-is-the-panama-canal-drying-up-and-what-it-means-for-shipping/102780142

Rozgon, O. (2024, February 5). Suez Canal profits nearly halved due to Houthi attacks – Bloomberg. UNN. https://unn.ua/en/news/suez-canal-profits-nearly-halved-due-to-houthi-attacks-bloomberg

Schuler, M. (2024, February 23). MV Rubymar Leaking Oil, Taking on Water After Houthi Missile Strike. gCaptaine. https://gcaptain.com/mv-rubymar-leaking-oil-taking-on-water-after-houthi-missile-strike/

Secretary of Defense. (2023, December 18). Statement on Ensuring Freedom of Navigation in the Red Sea. U.S. Department of Defense. https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3621110/statement-from-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-on-ensuring-freedom-of-n/

Shiryaevskaya, A. (2023, November 24). Panama Logjam Could Benefit Europe as US LNG Cargoes Avoid Asia. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-24/panama-logjam-could-benefit-europe-as-us-lng-cargoes-avoid-asia?srnd=premium

Stewart, Ph. (2023, December 22). More than 20 countries now part of US-led Red Sea coalition, Pentagon says. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/more-than-20-countries-now-part-us-led-red-sea-coalition-pentagon-2023-12-21/

Suez Canal Authority. (n.d.). New Suez Canal. https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/About/SuezCanal/Pages/NewSuezCanal.aspx

Taskar, B., & Andersen, P. (2020). Benefit of speed reduction for ships in different weather conditions. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 85, 102337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102337

United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, 1982. https://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf

U.S. Central Command [@CENTCOM]. (2024, February 22). Feb. 22 Red Sea Update. [Post]. X. https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/status/1760701137655591273

Volnorez. (2024, February 19). A record number of ships left the ports of Great Odesa. https://volnorez.com.ua/z-portiv-velikoї-odesi-vijshla-rekordna-kilkist-suden/

Wan, Z., Su, Y., Li, Z., Zhang, X., Zhang, Q., & Chen, J. (2023). Analysis of the impact of Suez Canal blockage on the global shipping network. Ocean & Coastal Management, 245, 106868. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2023.106868

Węcel, K., Stróżyna, M., Szmydt, M., & Abramowicz, W. (2024). The Impact of Crises on Maritime Traffic: A Case Study of the COVID-19 Pandemic and the War in Ukraine. Networks and Spatial Economics, 24, 199–230. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11067-023-09612-0

Xiao, R., Xiao, T., Zhao, P., Zhang, M., Ma, T. & Qiu, S. (2024). Structure and resilience changes of global liquefied natural gas shipping network during the Russia – Ukraine conflict. Ocean & Coastal Management, 252, 107102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2024.107102

Yerushalmy, J. (2023, December 19). Red Sea crisis explained: what is happening and what does it mean for global trade? Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/19/red-sea-shipping-crisis-bp-oil-explained-what-is-happening-and-what-does-it-mean-for-global-trade

Youvan, D. (2024). Navigating Troubled Waters: The Strategic Importance of the Suez Canal and Red Sea in Global Maritime Trade. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.18214.91208

.

Editorial Board Address

Ukraine, Odesa, Fontanska Doroga, 23
Lex Portus Editorial Board

fb

info@lexportus.net.ua